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A look back at President Biden’s first year…and his approval ratings slide

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President Joe Biden is officially one year into his presidency, but while his administration worked to combat COVID, inflation, and immigration challenges in 2021, American approval began to fall. Gallup polling reflects a 17 point drop in his approval rating from January 2021 to January 2022. According to Gallup’s polling, he entered office with 57 percent approval. It now sits at 40 percent.

Director of UMass Polls Natishe Nteta said the first year drop is often expected.

“In some ways, this is reflective of every president in the modern era. So every president comes into office on a high. This is the honeymoon period,” said Nteta. “And after that, about six month period, you do tend to see a decrease in levels of popularity.”

What Nteta describes is a trend observed during the presidencies of Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton. Trump’s approval rating dropped 9 percentage points in his first year. Obama’s dropped 18 percent, and Clinton’s dropped four percent.

An exception to this trend was George W. Bush. In the wake of September 11th, his approval rating jumped 29 percentage points in his first year.

Nteta said Bush’s jump shows how single events can have a big impact on a presidency and its approval ratings. But the ratings go both ways. Following America’s Afghanistan troop withdrawal in late August, Biden swiftly dropped six approval points. Since that time, he’s failed to surpass 43% approval.

“There are a lot of events which can explain why it is the President has experienced these lower approval numbers. And the question is going forward–whether or not he’s going to be able to bounce back,” Nteta said. “If he continues down this road, the likelihood is that we might be looking at a one term president.”

Baumgardner: FIRST COMES THE RISE TO POWER.

THEN COMES THE DROP IN POLLS.

FALLING APPROVAL RATINGS ARE A RITE OF PASSAGE FOR MOST PRESIDENTS’ FIRST YEAR.

BUT PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS SOME OF THE LOWEST POLLING 12 MONTHS IN.

SO LET’S BREAK THE NUMBERS DOWN WITH A TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE…AND SOME HELP FROM GALLUP RESEARCH AND DR. TATISHE NTETA – DIRECTOR OF UMASS POLLS.

BIDEN INAUGURATION: “Congratulations Mr. President”

Baumgardner: DAY ONE. BIDEN WAS RIDIN’ HIGH WITH 57 PERCENT APPROVAL.

NTETA: “In that first 100 days, that first six months, the President needs to push through the key parts of his agenda// to hopefully ward off the incoming or the upcoming decrease in his popularity.”

Baumgardner: BIDEN GOT RIGHT TO WORK, ISSUING A SLEW OF EXECUTIVE ORDERS OVERHAULING DONALD TRUMP’S POLICIES.

ALL WHILE TRUMP’S SECOND IMPEACHMENT TRIAL GOT UNDERWAY.

BIDEN: “Today we mark another grim, heartbr eaking milestone. 500,071 dead”

Baumgardner: BY MARCH THE VACCINE ROLLOUT WAS IN FULL SWING…AS WAS VACCINE  HESITANCY.

THE AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN PASSED WITHOUT ANY REPUBLICAN SUPPORT.

BIDEN SOT: “58 days into my administration, we will have met my goal of administering 100 million shots to our fellow Americans.”

Baumgardner: A WIN FOR BIDEN, AS JOB GROWTH AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SOAR TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS.

THE DUST SETTLES WITH BIDEN’S FIRST 100 DAYS.

CRITICISM OVER IMMIGRATION AND LACK OF BIPARTISANSHIP, BUT PROPS FOR THE ECONOMY AND PANDEMIC RESPONSE.

BY JUNE, CASE NUMBERS ARE AT THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE THE START OF THE PANDEMIC.

News Anchor: “Tough blow for the Biden Administration. Having to admit they will not reach their goal of getting 70% of eligible US adults vaccinated by the fourth of July.”

Baumgardner: THE HONEYMOON IS OFFICIALLY OVER.

DELTA VARIANT. SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES. AS FOR BIPARTISANSHIP? NOT SO MUCH.

AUGUST BROUGHT THE AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL… A WATERSHED MOMENT FOR THE PRESIDENCY.

NTETA:“Most Americans, I think, look to the president, given his role in foreign policy, as the person to blame for this, this failed withdrawal, and the problems that we left in the wake of our withdrawal. And so events do play an important role. The question is, how long did those events last in the minds of Americans.”

Baumgardner: IN THIS CASE- SEVERAL MONTHS. SINCE THE WITHDRAWAL…BIDEN’S POLLING HAS FAILED TO EXCEED  43%.

THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILL PASSES, COVID BOOSTERS ARE ROLLED OUT AND RECORD HIGH INFLATION SETS IN.

PSAKI : “We see that in poll after poll. In your poll, in many other polls that have come out around the country. People are sick and tired of COVID and the impacts on the economy.”

Baumgardner: BIDEN FACING THE REJECTION OF THE BUILD BACK BETTER ACT AND AN OMICRON SURGE, ENTERS INTO HIS SECOND YEAR WITH 40% APPROVAL.

NTETA: “The question of the next three years, is whether or not President  Biden is going to be able to successfully tackle the pandemic, is going to be able to get the American economy back on a steady footing, is going to be able to heal the divisions which mark our politics in our everyday lives // If he’s able to do that, we’re going to see that in his approval numbers.”

Baumgardner: WHAT DO YOU THINK OF SLIDIN’ BIDEN? CAN HE TURN IT AROUND IN Q2?

LET ME KNOW YOUR THOUGHTS IN THE COMMENTS BELOW AND BE SURE TO HIT THE STRAIGHT ARROW BIAS METER.

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President Joe Biden is officially one year into his presidency, but while his administration worked to combat COVID, inflation, and immigration challenges in 2021, American approval began to fall. Gallup polling reflects a 17 point drop in his approval rating from January 2021 to January 2022. According to Gallup’s polling, he entered office with 57 percent approval. It now sits at 40 percent.

Director of UMass Polls Natishe Nteta said the first year drop is often expected.

“In some ways, this is reflective of every president in the modern era. So every president comes into office on a high. This is the honeymoon period,” said Nteta. “And after that, about six month period, you do tend to see a decrease in levels of popularity.”

What Nteta describes is a trend observed during the presidencies of Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton. Trump’s approval rating dropped 9 percentage points in his first year. Obama’s dropped 18 percent, and Clinton’s dropped four percent.

An exception to this trend was George W. Bush. In the wake of September 11th, his approval rating jumped 29 percentage points in his first year.

Nteta said Bush’s jump shows how single events can have a big impact on a presidency and its approval ratings. But the ratings go both ways. Following America’s Afghanistan troop withdrawal in late August, Biden swiftly dropped six approval points. Since that time, he’s failed to surpass 43% approval.

“There are a lot of events which can explain why it is the President has experienced these lower approval numbers. And the question is going forward–whether or not he’s going to be able to bounce back,” Nteta said. “If he continues down this road, the likelihood is that we might be looking at a one term president.”

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