Home prices higher in 90% of metros. Here’s where buyers may find relief.

Home prices went up in 90% of metro markets across the U.S. in the last quarter of 2022 despite weakening demand, new data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows. Compared to a year ago, the national median price of a single family home rose 4% to $378,700.

The price increase is happening in spite of mortgage rates more than doubling in the last year, pushing monthly payments out of the realm of affordability for many. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from an average 3.15% in December 2021 to 6.44% in December 2022. That hiked the median monthly payment from $1,256 to $1,873 over the same time period.

“Because we have a lack of inventory in the U.S., these houses are remaining highly priced, because there are not as many available for people to purchase, even if demand has fallen,” said Alcynna Lloyd, a housing economy reporter for Business Insider.

According to the NAR, the family income needed to qualify for a median priced home went from $60,288 in December 2021 to $89,904 in December 2022, increasing by roughly 50%. Wages increased 5% over the same stretch. While tight inventory nationwide will continue to put pressure on prices, that’s not the case in every market, and that’s where Lloyd said some buyers could see relief.

“Some of these hot pandemic boom towns like Phoenix, Boise, those are areas seeing their home prices fall down,” she said. “Demand just isn’t there anymore. So while these markets saw a lot of production during the early stages of the pandemic, there just isn’t really enough buyers out there interested.”

Areas around Boise, Idaho; Austin, Texas; Boulder, Colorado; and Memphis, Tennessee, all saw declines in the fourth quarter, according to NAR data. In addition, home prices in notoriously expensive markets in California like San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles and Sacramento also saw year-over-year declines.

Interest in this economy is also directly tied to interest rates. Freddie Mac on Thursday reported a slight rise in the 30-year fixed rate from 6.09% to 6.12%, which is still nearly a full point lower than November’s peak of 7.08%. With the drop in rates, mortgage applications are starting to rise again, though remain far below what they were a year ago.

“That’s definitely enticing people,” Lloyd said. “Something else to keep in mind is that 6% is not an alarming mortgage rate. I spoke to an analyst this week that said when he purchased his first home, he paid around 12%. So 6% isn’t such a dramatic climb of mortgage rates, it’s just how fast that happened over the last year.”

Now that the shock of higher rates is wearing off, people appear slightly more willing to get into the market. And sellers who decide to enter the market are more willing to make concessions. That includes home builders, who are increasingly buying down mortgage rates to entice buyers.

“I think we’ve definitely reached a stage in the market where people are being more realistic about their selling or their buying perspectives,” Lloyd said. “And the market is really trying to get to a point where things go back to normal. People are coming back to Earth.”