Poll: 39% of Republicans, 25% of Democrats would blame fraud for loss

According to the latest wave of the Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index, a poll found nearly four out of 10 Republicans and one in four Democrats say they’ll likely blame election fraud if their party doesn’t win control of Congress in November. The poll was conducted on about 1,000 U.S. adults late last months. When asked how likely they would be to blame election fraud, the responses broke down like this:

• Likely: 39% Republican (19% highly likely) , 26% Democrat (11% highly likely)
• Unlikely: 60% Democrat, 36% Republican
• Do not know: 26% Republican, 15% Democrat

The poll results appear to be an example of more division in the United States, creating more fraud fears among both Democrats and Republicans. It found Americans who’d shared at least one meal in the past month with others from different political affiliations would be more skeptical about jumping to conclusions that election fraud caused a loss.

“When you have connections across the aisle with other people, you’re less likely to give into or even entertain some of the ‘crazy,’” Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson told Axios. “There are so few of those connections remaining, and that lack of connection contributes the space for people to believe the Big Lie and that elections are going to be stolen and all those kinds of things. Because they’re believing it about someone they’ve never met,” Jackson said.

When it comes to expectations for the midterm elections, sentiment is pretty similar for both parties. Nearly twice as many Democrats and Republicans feel hopeful (37% Republican and 35% Democrat) rather than dread (14% for Republicans and 19% for Democrats).