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Russia goes back on concessions as Ukraine refugee total tops 4 million

Mar 30, 2022

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On the same day the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) reported the refugee total from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is now over 4 million, Ukrainian authorities said Russia appeared to be going back on a concession it made just a day earlier. As a way “to increase mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations,” with Ukraine, Russia’s deputy defense minister said the country would “fundamentally… cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv.” Just hours later, Ukrainian officials reported Russian shelling hit homes, stores, libraries and other civilian sites in and around Chernihiv and on the outskirts of Kyiv.

“The so-called reduction of activity in the Chernihiv region, was demonstrated by the enemy strikes including air strikes on Nizhyn, and all night long they were shelling Chernihiv,” Chernihiv Gov. Viacheslav Chaus said. “Civilian infrastructure facilities, libraries, shopping centers, many houses were destroyed.”

“The whole night we listened to sirens, to rocket attacks and we listened to huge explosions east of Kyiv and north of Kyiv,” Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko added in a video address to EU regional officials.

Russia’s concession Tuesday was met with skepticism from the United States. At his daily press briefing Wednesday, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby noted “a small percentage of the troops… Russia had arrayed against Kyiv… are repositioning into Belarus.” The video above includes a clip from his briefing.

“I want to hit it again because I think it’s an important point: if if the Russians were really serious about de-escalating–the way they spun this yesterday that they’re trying to take the pressure off–well, then send them home,” Kirby said. “And that’s not what they’re doing, at least not yet.”

The attacks on Kyiv and Chernihiv may get worse, with Russian Defense Ministry Chief Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov saying Wednesday “there is a planned redeployment of troops in progress.” This activity could cause the refugee total in Ukraine to rise. The 4 million total the UNHCR reported Wednesday is already on the high end of what they projected at the beginning of the invasion.

“I think it’s a tragic milestone,” Alex Mundt, a UNHCR senior emergency coordinator in Poland, said Wednesday. The video above also includes comments he mande. “It’s hard to describe in an interview what four million people totally traumatized by war looks like or feels like, and what it means for their future, when six weeks ago they were living a completely normal life and now they’re completely uprooted.”

John Kirby, US Defense Department Spokesman: “The repositioning of a a small percentage of the troops and the battalion tactical groups that Russia had arrayed against Kyiv, probably in the neighborhood of 20 percent of what they had, they are beginning to reposition. Some of those troops, we assess, are repositioning into Belarus. We don’t have an exact number for you, but that’s our early assessments. None of them — we have seen, none of them repositioned to their home garrison. And that’s not a small point. If the Russians are serious about de-escalating — because that’s their claim here — then they should send them home. But they’re not doing that, at least not yet. So that’s not what we’re seeing.”

Alex Mundt, UNHCR senior emergency coordinator in Poland: “Look, I think it’s a tragic milestone. It’s hard to describe in an interview what four million people totally traumatized by war looks like or feels like, and what it means for their future, when six weeks ago they were living a completely normal life and now they’re completely uprooted. I think four million people is roughly the population of Los Angeles – I’m from the U.S. – but imagine every single person in a massive metropolis suddenly being forced from their homes, their communities, everything they know. So we mark this is a milestone, but it’s really, I think, a tragic indicator. But it also doesn’t even capture the full scale of the conflict. We have seven million IDPs (internally displaced persons) within Ukraine. We have maybe 10 million people trapped and can’t move. So actually four million, it’s massive. But even that doesn’t capture the true scale of what we’re facing.”