Shifting demographics at the root of ‘great replacement’ theory

LONGWORTH: 51 PEOPLE WERE MURDERED IN THE MOSQUE ATTACKS IN CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND.

THEN, 23 WERE KILLED IN AN EL PASO, TEXAS, WALMART.

AND, MORE RECENTLY, 10 BLACK PEOPLE ARE DEAD FOLLOWING THE TOPS GROCERY STORE SHOOTING IN BUFFALO, NY.

ALL THE GUNMEN WERE REPORTEDLY MOTIVATED, AT LEAST IN PART, BY THE “GREAT REPLACEMENT THEORY.”

BIDEN: THE EVIL DID COME TO BUFFALO, AND IT’S COME TO TOO MANY PLACES–MANIFESTED IN GUNMEN WHO MASSACRED INNOCENT PEOPLE IN THE NAME OF HATEFUL AND PERVERSE IDEOLOGY.

LONGWORTH: SO, WHAT IS THE “GREAT REPLACEMENT” THEORY?

LET’S GET THIS STRAIGHT.

THE IDEA WAS NOTHING NEW AT THE TIME, BUT IN 2011, A FRENCH ETHNONATIONALIST COINED THE “GREAT REPLACEMENT” THEORY IN HIS BOOK BY THE SAME NAME.

HE CLAIMED THE LIBERAL ELITE WERE COMMITTING “GENOCIDE” BY REPLACING NATIVE WHITE EUROPEANS WITH NON-WHITE IMMIGRANTS.

WHITE SUPREMACISTS ADOPTED IT IN THE US, ASSERTING THAT THE *AMERICAN* LIBERAL ELITE WANTED LAX IMMIGRATION LAWS TO ENCOURAGE MORE IMMIGRANTS INTO THE COUNTRY. THAT WAY, THEY’D REPLACE WHITE VOTERS.

AND WHEN THEY SAY “LIBERAL ELITE,” THEY’RE SOMETIMES TALKING ABOUT JEWS, SO THERE’S ANTISEMITISM MIXED IN THERE, TOO.

NOW, THERE IS SOME TRUTH AT THE ROOT OF THIS THEORY. STAY WITH ME HERE.

THE RACIAL MAKEUP OF THE U.S. IS CHANGING.

THE 2020 CENSUS SHOWS THAT WHILE THE WHITE POPULATION IS STILL THE LARGEST…IT DECREASED BY MORE THAN 8% SINCE 2010. AND THE MULTIRACIAL POPULATION HAS GROWN BY MORE THAN 270%.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER DATA BACKS THIS UP–SHOWING THE IMMIGRANT POPULATION STEADILY EXPANDING SINCE 1965. THEY ESTIMATE THE COMMUNITY WILL HIT 78 MILLION BY 2065.

I ASKED ALEX NOWRASTEH, A POLITICAL SCIENCE EXPERT WITH THE CATO INSTITUTE, HOW IMMIGRANTS TRADITIONALLY VOTE.

ALEX NOWRASTEH: SO, THE EVIDENCE IS THAT MOST FIRST GENERATION IMMIGRANTS–THE IMMIGRANTS THEMSELVES–TEND TO HAVE FAIRLY LOW VOTER PARTICIPATION. BUT WHEN THEY DO VOTE, THEY TEND TO BE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC.

LONGWORTH: DEMOCRATS, OF COURSE, ARE HAPPY TO ACCEPT THOSE VOTES.

THAT’S OBVIOUS IN THEIR EXTENSION OF VOTING RIGHTS TO NON-CITIZENS IN NEW YORK CITY.

IT’S JUST ONE EXAMPLE OF HOW DEMS HAVE CELEBRATED THE CHANGING AMERICAN DEMOGRAPHIC FOR YEARS.

THE PHRASE “DEMOGRAPHICS IS DESTINY” ENCAPSULATES THE BELIEF THAT THIS EMERGING DEMOGRAPHIC WILL AUTOMATICALLY TRANSLATE INTO MORE BLUE VOTES IN THE FUTURE…BUT *THAT* PART’S NOT NECESSARILY TRUE, ACCORDING TO POLITICAL SCIENTIST RUY TEIXEIRA.

RUY TEIXEIRA: DEMOGRAPHY IS A HUGE FACTOR. IT DRIVES A LOT OF THINGS, IT CHANGES THE TERRAIN. IT MUST BE TAKEN ACCOUNT OF. IT MUST BE RECKONED WITH. BUT TO SAY THAT IT’S DESTINY IS JUST WRONG–IT’S NOT THE CASE. AND I HOPE THERE ARE NO DEMOCRATS OUT THERE WHO THINK THIS.

LONGWORTH: THERE ARE.

BUT THERE’S MORE TO THE STORY.

BY ALLOWING MORE IMMIGRANTS INTO THE COUNTRY, THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY THEORETICALLY TURNS OFF A BUNCH OF WORKING-CLASS VOTERS WHO WOULD HAVE VOTED BLUE.

ALSO, ACCORDING TO NOWRASTEH, IMMIGRANTS TEND TO BECOME MORE CONSERVATIVE THE LONGER THEY’RE HERE IN THE U.S.

AND FINALLY, THE CHILDREN OF IMMIGRANTS VOTE LIKE ANY OTHER CITIZENS.

NOWRASTEH: IT’S JUST A STORY OF ASSIMILATION OVER TIME. IN THE SAME WAY THAT, IN THE 19TH CENTURY, IRISH AMERICANS WERE OVERWHELMINGLY DEMOCRATIC, BUT IN THE 20TH CENTURY THEY STARTED TO VOTE MORE LIKE OTHER AMERICANS IN THAT THEY SPLIT THEIR VOTES BETWEEN THE TWO MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES.

LONGWORTH: SO, ALL THIS IS TO SAY, THE SHIFT IN U.S. DEMOGRAPHICS IS REAL. IT’S JUST THAT THE RIGHT AND LEFT ARE FRAMING IT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. FOR SOME ON THE LEFT, IT’S “DEMOGRAPHICS IS DESTINY” AND FOR SOME ON THE RIGHT, IT’S THE “GREAT REPLACEMENT” THEORY.