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Stock market skids to worst start of the year since 1970, S&P down 21%

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The stock market notched its worst start to the year in more than 50 years with the S&P 500 closing down 21% over the past six months. The skid marks the poorest first-half performance from the index since 1970.

The S&P 500 ended June 30 at 3,785, more than a thousand points lower than the start of the year and representing a wipeout of more than $8 trillion in market value.

For those hoping this is the bottom, however, some bears have some bad news. Sixty-year Wall Street veteran George Ball told Bloomberg the S&P could bottom at 3,100, while Bank of America wrote in a note that 3,000 could be the worst-case scenario.

History says it’s a coin toss how the markets will perform in the second half. Trackers at S&P Dow Jones Global Indices said since 1957, a negative first-half results in a negative second-half roughly 50% of the time.

Back in 1970, after dropping 21%, the S&P 500 recovered its first-half losses in the second half, rising 27%.

This year, some experts are optimistic, saying the market has already priced in the risk of a mild recession. The performance, then, rests on what happens with 4-decade high inflation and how aggressive the Federal Reserve is in its response. Some are worried if high inflation persists, the Fed will be willing to push the economy into a recession to lower it.

SIMONE DEL ROSARIO: IT’S THE STOCK MARKET’S WORST START IN MORE THAN 50 YEARS.

WITH THE S&P 500 – SHEDDING 21% OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS – THE POOREST PERFORMANCE SINCE 1970.

THE MARKET INDEX – ENDING JUNE 30 AT 3,785. MORE THAN A THOUSAND POINTS LOWER THAN THE START OF THE YEAR.

THAT REPRESENTS A WIPEOUT OF MORE THAN $8 TRILLION IN MARKET VALUE.

IF YOU’RE HOPING THIS IS BOTTOM, SOME BEARS HAVE BAD NEWS.

60-YEAR WALL STREET VET GEORGE BALL TELLS BLOOMBERG THE S&P COULD BOTTOM AT 3,100.

AND BANK OF AMERICA – HAS 3-THOUSAND EARMARKED IN A WORST-CASE SCENARIO.

HISTORY SAYS – IT’S A COIN TOSS HOW THE MARKETS WILL PERFORM THE SECOND HALF. TRACKERS SAY SINCE 1957, A NEGATIVE FIRST HALF RESULTS IN A NEGATIVE SECOND HALF – HALF THE TIME.

BACK IN 1970, THE S&P REBOUNDED, RECOVERING THE LOSSES FROM THE START OF THE YEAR.

THIS YEAR – EXPERTS SAY THE MARKET’S ALREADY PRICED IN THE RISK OF A MILD RECESSION. BUT ALL EYES ARE ON 4-DECADE HIGH INFLATION – AND HOW AGGRESSIVE THE FED IS IN TAMING IT.

IN NEW YORK FOR JUST BUSINESS I’M SIMONE DEL ROSARIO.

The stock market notched its worst start to the year in more than 50 years with the S&P 500 closing down 21% over the past six months. The skid marks the poorest first-half performance from the index since 1970.

The S&P 500 ended June 30 at 3,785, more than a thousand points lower than the start of the year and representing a wipeout of more than $8 trillion in market value.

For those hoping this is the bottom, however, some bears have some bad news. Sixty-year Wall Street veteran George Ball told Bloomberg the S&P could bottom at 3,100, while Bank of America wrote in a note that 3,000 could be the worst-case scenario.

History says it’s a coin toss how the markets will perform in the second half. Trackers at S&P Dow Jones Global Indices said since 1957, a negative first-half results in a negative second-half roughly 50% of the time.

Back in 1970, after dropping 21%, the S&P 500 recovered its first-half losses in the second half, rising 27%.

This year, some experts are optimistic, saying the market has already priced in the risk of a mild recession. The performance, then, rests on what happens with 4-decade high inflation and how aggressive the Federal Reserve is in its response. Some are worried if high inflation persists, the Fed will be willing to push the economy into a recession to lower it.

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