Commentary
-
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
Hey, everybody, Peter Zion here coming to you from home in Colorado. It’s been about a week since the Russians activated their draft for their partial mobilization. And so if there are, things are not going well, every plane out of all Russian locations to any other location are full. Every ticket for the next month is basically been sold on every possible plane, people are chartering private flights at 25 grand a seat in order to get out and there are miles long traffic jams at exit points, especially in Georgia, and Finland, where you can still drive out. So not great. The angles for this are both military, and demographic. So the Russian strategy for all of its Wars has always been about numbers. The Russian core territories are very, very poor, not in resources necessarily, but the weather is awful. So if you’re talking to agricultural output per acre, it’s among the lowest of the major agricultural producers. And that means that the strategy the Russians have to use is not necessarily for high value added equipment in order to prosecute their wars. But instead for just mass numbers, human wave tactics, subjecting their voters wave after wave after wave of poorly skilled, poorly trained, poorly equipped soldiers until the numbers win the day. Now, the industrial revolution changed the math of this somewhat. Because once you get to the Industrial Revolution, and things like steel and railroads and machine guns, movement becomes easier and faster, you can deliver damage at range. And so you can become a little bit more precise. But in the case of Russia, it hasn’t been as much of a game changer as you might think. Because most of the countries that Russia borders have been just realized deeper and more quickly going back to the dawn of the industrial revolution itself, and there is no exception there today. So it’s still a numbers game. The problem is, human wave tactics don’t work when the other side doesn’t simply have machine guns, but artillery and air power. And because of the Russian incapacity to train and because of their logistical incompetence. Now on the Eastern Front in places like Denon skimo oNsc. In most battles, the Ukrainians are fighting as a near pure power, they’ve managed to capture enough Russian equipment that the Russians are no longer enjoying a 10 or 20 to one artillery ratio, it’s something much more close to even. So we’ve already had some reports that some of the draftees had gotten one day of instruction, and then were shipped off to the front and have already charged into the Ukrainian lines and gotten massacred almost to a man, how reliable those reports are at this point. It’s a warzone. And it’s Russia. So we really don’t know. But it does kind of fit the historical pattern.
Second, there’s another aspect to the revolution and how it has empowered the individual. It’s not just about tanks, it’s about passenger cars, people are a little bit harder to corral in the industrial age, and they were in the pre industrial age. So when you want to go and draft someone, and if you’ve got a car, you don’t want to go into the army, especially if you’re just going to be used as cannon fodder,
you run. And so we’ve got those traffic jams at the border. And even if you’re just in your car, going from city to city, it makes it a little bit more difficult for the Russian authorities to find you. So far, the low end estimates that I’ve seen one week after the draft started are the 300,000 Russian men primarily in the 20s have fled the country so far. That is supposedly how many people the Russian draft is supposed to activate in this first phase will probably be more than that in time. But the Russians only have 6.8 million men in their 20s. So losing people in the hundreds of 1000s is not a rounding error. And if you combine this numbers game with human wave tactics and the industrial ability to either flee or mow down the troops, you need a lot more numbers than you would normally and 6.8 million just isn’t probably enough. And that’s before you consider that Russia was in a state of advanced demographic decay and no longer has the numbers that it needs and volume.
The bottom line of all of this still rushes war to lose. They’ve may not have the numbers they’ve had relative to their foes in the past, but they still have more than enough. But if they continue to underperform, not only are they looking to lose this war, but this will absolutely be the last conventional war they fight because they simply don’t have a replacement generation being built. And the age group that would normally be doing the building is running right now. Okay, that’s it for me. Until next time.
-
Global warming won’t impact Russian-Chinese shipping
The seas above Russia’s northern coastline are too frozen for shipping, but some have wondered whether global warming might change that in the decades to come. If those seas were to become navigable for commercial shipping, new direct routes between Russia and China could theoretically open up. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan throws more…
-
Can other nations replicate success of US shale revolution?
The “shale revolution” has provided the United States with a bountiful domestic supply of oil. But extracting oil from shale is a highly technical process, and it is also dependent on specific geological formations. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan tackles the question of whether or not other nations might be able to replicate the…
-
Peace between Israel and Iran, at least for now
A series of recent airstrikes between Israel and Iran inflamed fears of a wider regional war erupting in the Middle East. That concern now seems to have paid off, after third-party countries around the world successfully intervened and talked down military hardliners in both Israel and Iran in order to avoid such an outcome. Israel’s…
-
Global internet in a precarious state, but that could be a positive
Over 500 underwater cables span over 870,000 miles worldwide, serving as the foundation of the modern global internet. Despite their critical role in facilitating communication, these cables often go unnoticed, even as the amount of data transmitted through them has surged. So what happens if the cables fail? Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan contends…
-
Water wars are an unlikely future
Foreign policy writers have long warned of the possibility that clean drinking water might become “the next oil” — that is, that major wars might be fought around the globe over access to potable water. With expanding populations and finite water supplies, these critics argue that humans will inevitably fight each other to secure drinking…
Latest Stories
-
Survey: More US workers now fear losing jobs, lower wages due to AI
-
Hamas video shows American hostage, arm amputated from Oct. 7 attack
-
Arizona House votes to repeal Civil War-era abortion ban
-
Arizona grand jury indicts 18 in alleged 2020 fake elector scheme tied to Trump
-
Trump to attend NY trial as US Supreme Court hears immunity case
Popular Opinions
-
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
Latest Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum. We hope these different voices will help you reach your own conclusions.
The opinions published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
Latest Commentary
We know it is important to hear from a diverse range of observers on the complex topics we face and believe our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions.
The commentaries published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitical StrategistCan other nations replicate success of US shale revolution?
Peace between Israel and Iran, at least for now
Global internet in a precarious state, but that could be a positive
Dr. Frank Luntz
Pollster and Political Analyst‘Take the job seriously’: Why Americans are fed up with Congress
‘If we can shrink it, it will stop growing’: Americans talk debt, deficit
‘I don’t think they care’: Undecided voters explain their reasons
Pete Ricketts
U.S. Senator for Nebraska