Commentary
-
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
Hey everybody, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. We’re gonna talk about nukes today.
So, early in the Ukraine conflict, the Russians threatened NATO countries and neutrals on their Western border with nuclear attack should they intervene in the military action, as they call it, in their interventions in Ukraine, the Ukraine War, as everyone else is calling it.
Everyone I know that works in the Defense Department, they’re not dismissing the Russian threat, but they point out that this has been done over and over and over again. And on this specific instance, they’ve detected no change in how the Russians are managing their, their nuclear forces. There’s no change in alert status. They see no reason to think that the Russians are going to escalate to that level at this point. So they’re taking it seriously, but they’re not overly concerned.
The concern actually has to do with Russian extreme weakness.
The Russians have underperformed throughout this entire war, and it’s like they’ve unlearned all of the lessons that they learned from World War II and especially the Chechen conflict.
So the Ukrainians aren’t simply just carrying out gorilla actions against Russian forces. They’re carrying out conventional actions using vehicles and using air power.
On March 16th, the Ukrainians launched a very successful attack on the Kherson Airport and blew up all kinds of Russian aircraft on the ground. The Russians should have achieved air superiority in the first 48 hours of this conflict. There should be no Ukrainian ships, excuse me, should be no Ukrainian jets in the air whatsoever. There shouldn’t be any drones flying. They have air defense coverage over almost the entirety of Ukraine in all of the conflict zones. And yet the Ukrainians are able to hit them with conventional forces over and over and over and over and over. This should not be happening.
And I think that the, what really spooked the White House is that giant convoy that was coming north from Belarus down to Kia, this 40-mile long column of vehicles. It ran out of fuel in one day, and it ran out of food in three days. And the Russians had to leave on foot to go back to Belarus to find fuel trucks.
I mean, this is like Keystone cops-level of logistics.
This is making the Iraqis in the Desert Storm conflict back in the early nineties look competent.
This level of just complete ineptitude across the entire military space for the Russians signals that they’re not nearly the threat that we always thought that they were. And that’s a problem because it’s my position that the Ukrainians are not the primary target here. The Russians are expanding west to try to get to the gateway territories that allow access to the Russian space. They need to block the Bessarabian Gap, which means a conflict with Romania. They need to block the Polish gap, which means going all the way to Warsaw, and they need to get this surface, excuse me, the, the beaches of the Baltic Sea. So that means going into all three of the Baltic Republics. Romania, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, those are all NATO countries.
If the Russians are showing themselves to be this weak, we now know that in any direct confrontation between American forces and Russian forces, the Russian forces are just gonna be obliterated. And that will leave the Russians with a very difficult choice to make.
Humiliating, horrible, strategic surrender, and withdrawal or escalate to the nuclear question?
And so the defacto position of the American military, the American government and NATO in general is now that we have to shove as many weapons as we possibly can into Ukraine so that the Russians never can advanced past Ukraine. We have to turn Ukraine into a killing zone so that American and Russian forces never actually face off. And so that the nuclear question is off the table.
And so to that end, we have seen a redoubling of efforts by the entire Western family of nations to arm the Ukrainians with whatever can be transferred. The U.S. Is leaning on countries in central Europe, countries that used to be Soviet satellites, to up and relocate as many of their Soviet area systems into Ukraine as possible. And discussions are ongoing about backstopping all of those with American equipment.
For the United States specifically, I think that single biggest thing that’s going to matter in the next month are Stinger missiles. When the war began, the Ukrainians had very, very few of them, only ones that had been forwarded on from the Baltic Republics.
Remember, the Baltics combined only have a population of, 7 million. So you’re talking just about a few dozen missiles, but now the Americans are shoving Stingers in the hundreds into Ukraine, and they’re only now starting to arrive, and that should generate a massive fatality rate among the Russian jets that are trying to operate in this space.
So this is going to get a lot worse, a lot quicker than any of us had ever thought, because now we’re trying to provide a fire break in Ukraine so that the Russians can never advance to the point that nukes come into contention.
So it’s not just the Russians who are engaging in civilian obliteration projects across the length of the country in order to destroy future gorilla possibilities. It’s now the West specifically trying to make sure that the Ukrainians can bleed the Russians everywhere in every possible combination of tactics to make sure that they can never move beyond that country.
This war is getting really nasty.
All right, that’s it for me until next time.
-
Are Russia’s hypersonic missiles too good to be true?
Russia has reportedly used five of its new hypersonic Zircon missiles to target Kyiv since the beginning of 2024. Russia claims that these sea-based missiles, boasting a range of 625 miles and capable of traveling at nine times the speed of sound, are part of its family of “superweapons” aimed at penetrating the U.S. missile…
-
Norway sending F-16s to Ukraine
In recent months, the need for Ukrainian air defenses has grown more urgent. As U.S. aid is unable to pass through Congress, Ukraine’s European allies have been stepping up to provide what they can. Norway is now the latest nation to pledge F-16s to Ukraine, not only to defend Ukrainian airspace, but also for the…
-
Russians targeting civilian emergency crews in Ukraine
Russian forces are applying a brutal tactic in their war on Ukraine. The tactic, “double tap,” includes an initial strike on a specific civilian target of some value, followed by a second strike intentionally designed to kill the emergency first responders, medical staff, firefighters, and other key personnel dispatched to the location of the first…
-
Iranian strike on Israel not intended to provoke regional war
Rising tensions in the Middle East boiled over again on Saturday, April 13, when Iran launched a direct attack against Israel with over 300 combined armed drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. The attack follows decades of simmering conflict between the two nations, amplified most recently by Israel’s invasion of Gaza and a strike on…
-
The trouble with ‘good’ demographics
Declining birth rates throughout much of Western Europe and America, and in other developed nations like Japan, have alarmed social scientists. Concern is most acute in nations where a shrinking workforce will be expected to pay for the rising costs of a much larger retiring population. But on the opposite end of this spectrum, rapid…
Latest Stories
-
Dozens detained during pro-Palestinian protests at Columbia University
-
FBI director warns Chinese hackers waiting for ‘just the right moment’ to strike
-
Israel carries out strike against Iran
-
More Dems signal willingness to save Johnson from speakership vote
-
NASA worm returns as interest in space grows around the world
Popular Opinions
-
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
Latest Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum. We hope these different voices will help you reach your own conclusions.
The opinions published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
Latest Commentary
We know it is important to hear from a diverse range of observers on the complex topics we face and believe our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions.
The commentaries published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitical StrategistNorway sending F-16s to Ukraine
Russians targeting civilian emergency crews in Ukraine
Iranian strike on Israel not intended to provoke regional war
Dr. Frank Luntz
Pollster and Political Analyst‘Take the job seriously’: Why Americans are fed up with Congress
‘If we can shrink it, it will stop growing’: Americans talk debt, deficit
‘I don’t think they care’: Undecided voters explain their reasons
Pete Ricketts
U.S. Senator for Nebraska