Commentary
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next few weeks. Whereas in the 2018 and 2020 elections, they undercounted potential Republican voters, this time they appear to have undercounted potential Democrat voters.
Republican advantage on the economy did not play out as expected in the suburbs. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, for example, none of the contested seats that Republicans had their eyes on, were won by them. In New York, it appears they only picked up one of the contested seats, happened to be the one that was chaired by the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. There’s some irony in there, but in general, they have not succeeded.
It appears that rather than prevail among independents, which most polls said they would, Republicans and Democrats split the independent vote about equally. Although Republicans are likely to win the overall popular vote for the house that was not translated well into large gains and seats, they likely will control the House with perhaps 228 seats, and not the 238 seats that they might have expected at the beginning of the evening. In the Senate, one of the biggest surprises was in the state of Arizona, where the polls predicted a close race and one where the Republican candidate for governor was actually somewhat ahead. In the end, the Arizona vote went rather decisively for the Democrats, with Democratic candidates winning by between 10 and 15 points. So there’s a lot to analyze about tonight’s vote. In the end, we’re going to have divided government with a very narrow edge for the Republicans in the House, not too much bigger than the edge that Nancy Pelosi had for the Democrats in the last two years. This is going to make running the house very difficult for incoming speaker McCarthy.
In addition, you’re going to have divided governments and negotiations between the Democrat in the White House and Republicans in the House of Representatives. I’m not sure what was resolved by tonight’s election, but it doesn’t look like much was instead of America’s going to go on very much like before, a very divided nation, one with not clear direction, in what types of policies to pursue. This is Larry Lindsey frustrate error News.
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President Biden just isn’t cool
For some Americans, politics is only about policy, while others prioritize core values, ideas, aspirations or beliefs. Still, for others, politics may be a reflection of culture, where voting serves as a symbolic act to proclaim cultural group identity. But for some Americans, who they vote for and support is more of a popularity contest,…
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Federal Reserve policy should be more restrictive
The American economy is booming, with high GDP growth, record-low unemployment, and wage gains for median workers. Over the past few quarters, U.S. economic growth indicators have consistently outperformed official projections. But the U.S. Federal Reserve recently conceded that its policies might be too restrictive, hindering the full potential of the U.S. economy, which the…
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Celebrate tight labor market, but don’t cut interest rates
While President Joe Biden has been celebrating U.S. economic success, many Americans are still unhappy about the economy. So who’s right? The most recent jobs report for February showed that while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%, job gains were higher than expected, with the total coming in at 275,000 versus the expected increase…
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Social and economic class will define 2024 election
Following in the footsteps of FDR, Democratic support in the past hundred years has drawn largely from working-class individuals, labor unions, and civil society organizations. Republican support, conversely, tended to rely upon larger corporate donations and the support of high-income individuals. In 2024, these traditional roles are evolving, and the new reality of campaign finance…
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Black swan events make next US president difficult to predict
In November, Americans will cast their votes to elect a new president and Congress. Despite significant indicators suggesting dissatisfaction with the economy, posing a challenge for President Biden’s potential reelection, predicting the winner remains challenging due to all the variables at play. Straight Arrow News contributor Larry Lindsey utilizes a recent Gallup poll to offer…
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The commentaries published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
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