Commentary
-
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
Hey everybody, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the Lincoln Memorial in DC. Now I know I’ve already talked about the Chinese semiconductor shift in policy here in the United States. But there’s been a lot that has developed over the last 48 hours…so I feel I need to do a quick update.
The biggest thing to understand is…not only is China now unable to import the equipment to make semiconductors, or the tools to maintain and operate the equipment, or the software that’s necessary to operate the equipment, or any mid or high-level chips at all. Now, any Americans who want to assist with the Chinese semiconductor industry have to make a choice. You can have your job with China or you can have your citizenship. As a result, within about 48 hours of the policy being adopted last Friday, every single American citizen who was working in China in the industry either quit or their companies relocated their entire division so they would have to lose their staff. For all practical purposes, the Chinese semiconductor industry of everything over like Internet of Things, level-of-quality is now dead. And that has a lot more implications than it sounds.
The Chinese have proven incapable of the last 25 years of advancing sufficiently technologically in terms of the intellectual heft that’s required to operate this industry, beyond being able to simply operate the facilities that make the low-end chips. And even that had to be managed by …foreigners. So there is no indigenous capacity here to pick this up and move on. And since the United States has basically corralled the Japanese and the Dutch, two very pro-American countries from a strategic sense, to join in this ban, really all that’s left is potentially Korea and Taiwan. And even if they were fully on board — which they’re not — that is not enough to carry all the water that needs to be carried.
In terms of industrial fallout, this doesn’t just mean that the Chinese are never going to be able to make the chips that go into cars or computers. It also means that any industry that is dependent upon the hardware, dies. So when you think of some of the technological advancements that the Chinese have made in recent years, things like AI and mass automation, monitoring their own population, the great firewall, hypersonic cruise missiles, a space program… supercomputers. If the Chinese want to do any of this, they have to buy chips basically on the gray market, purchase prefinished products and then pull out the chips and apply them to something they weren’t designed for.
We are looking at at least an order of magnitude drop in the Chinese capacity to operate in anything that is tech focused. This is a deal killer, not just for the industry but for a modern technocratic system. From a technological point of view, China is done. The question, of course is what do they do about it? We’re dealing with a one-man government here that’s a little petulant when they don’t get their way. And where the bureaucracy is either completely static or over-enthusiastic and does things like work well for your diplomacy.
So I would expect this kind of bag of **** public diplomacy that has evolved in China to hit this hard and loud, which will probably only encourage the Americans to act more harshly and start targeting some of the lower end semiconductors. And that’s going to have consequences throughout the world. But we’ll get to that another time. All right. Take care.
-
How could RFK Jr. impact 2024 election?
Many Americans speculated about how a potential RFK, Jr. campaign might impact the 2024 elections. While RFK is neither a Democrat nor a Republican, many of his positions favor Donald Trump’s base over Joe Biden’s, particularly his various conspiracy theories on a wide range of subjects. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan says that GOP…
-
Global warming won’t impact Russian-Chinese shipping
The seas above Russia’s northern coastline are too frozen for shipping, but some have wondered whether global warming might change that in the decades to come. If those seas were to become navigable for commercial shipping, new direct routes between Russia and China could theoretically open up. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan throws more…
-
Can other nations replicate success of US shale revolution?
The “shale revolution” has provided the United States with a bountiful domestic supply of oil. But extracting oil from shale is a highly technical process, and it is also dependent on specific geological formations. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan tackles the question of whether or not other nations might be able to replicate the…
-
Peace between Israel and Iran, at least for now
A series of recent airstrikes between Israel and Iran inflamed fears of a wider regional war erupting in the Middle East. That concern now seems to have paid off, after third-party countries around the world successfully intervened and talked down military hardliners in both Israel and Iran in order to avoid such an outcome. Israel’s…
-
Global internet in a precarious state, but that could be a positive
Over 500 underwater cables span over 870,000 miles worldwide, serving as the foundation of the modern global internet. Despite their critical role in facilitating communication, these cables often go unnoticed, even as the amount of data transmitted through them has surged. So what happens if the cables fail? Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan contends…
Latest Stories
-
Biden uses NFL draft ad to try to connect with young voters
-
Powering pot: Energy for US cannabis industry could electrify 13.5M homes
-
Allies plan for Trump to have more control over interest rates
-
FDA: Bird flu found in 1/5 commercial milk samples, suggests greater spread
-
China permanently deploys warships to second overseas base
Popular Opinions
-
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
Latest Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum. We hope these different voices will help you reach your own conclusions.
The opinions published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
Latest Commentary
We know it is important to hear from a diverse range of observers on the complex topics we face and believe our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions.
The commentaries published in this section are solely those of the contributors and do not reflect the views of Straight Arrow News.
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitical StrategistGlobal warming won’t impact Russian-Chinese shipping
Can other nations replicate success of US shale revolution?
Peace between Israel and Iran, at least for now
Dr. Frank Luntz
Pollster and Political Analyst‘Take the job seriously’: Why Americans are fed up with Congress
‘If we can shrink it, it will stop growing’: Americans talk debt, deficit
‘I don’t think they care’: Undecided voters explain their reasons
Pete Ricketts
U.S. Senator for Nebraska