Led by President Biden’s highest approval ratings of the year, reports of Democrats closing the gap on Republicans ahead of the November midterms are widespread. While Democrats are polling better now than they have all year in Blue states, if the 2020 election is any indication, polling accuracy can be an issue. Straight Arrow News contributor Newt Gingrich shares the names of pollsters he deems more accurate than most, and argues that any Democrat overconfidence will come with a cost:
It’s a little hard to know why but virtually every August of an election year the propaganda media suddenly discovers that there’s a surge of the Democrats — that there’s not really going to be a big Republican tide and that everything will work out fine. They decided that Biden is recovering. They decide that this happened — by the way with Obama, and it happened with Clinton — they decided that the Republican candidates aren’t strong enough. They go through all sorts of things.
They take polls that are totally phony — sometimes have 20% more Democrats that actually vote. And it’s designed, I think, both to depress Republicans, and to increase the optimism and the participation of Democrats, and then it all collapses.
Well, the same thing is starting to happen. Now, there are some posters you can look at. Trafalgar, for example, led by Rebecca Haley, has a terrific record. And they don’t show any of the things that the news media polls show. I would say that if you look at Scott Rasmussen, who does a great job, he doesn’t show any of the things that the news media polls are showing. If you look at other people that we work with, you’ll find John McLaughlin is a good example of a totally different approach.
But when you go out, and I just spent time, with the Senatorial Committee on the Republican side, went through every single race in the country. And I can tell you, on the Senate side, we are much stronger than the Democrats or the propaganda media thinks we are. And what’s really interesting about this is if you’re following information that doesn’t work — think of it as having a compass that shows you east, what is supposed to be showing you north, so you think you’re going north, but you’re actually going east. Well, that’s what happens. All of a sudden, the Democrats get together, they think they’re doing fine. They don’t have to change. They don’t have to explain anything. And that somehow it’s all going to work out.
My prediction is that not only are the Republicans going to win the House, but they’re gonna win the Senate by a surprising majority. And as I went through state after state, what I saw said to me, that you’re going to see a whole wave of candidates win that nobody in Washington currently expects.